Academic Journal
Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model
| Title: | Prediction of effectiveness of universal rotavirus vaccination in Southwestern Vietnam based on a dynamic mathematical model |
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| Authors: | Taeyong Lee, Ji-Man Kang, Jong Gyun Ahn, Dung Thi Thuy Truong, Thuong Vu Nguyen, Thang Vinh Ho, Ha Thi Thanh Ton, Phuc Le Hoang, Min Young Kim, Joon-Sup Yeom, Jeehyun Lee |
| Source: | Scientific Reports, Vol 14, Iss 1, Pp 1-9 (2024) |
| Publisher Information: | Nature Portfolio, 2024. |
| Publication Year: | 2024 |
| Collection: | LCC:Medicine LCC:Science |
| Subject Terms: | Rotavirus, Vaccine, Vaccine effectiveness, Dynamic model, Mathematical model, Vietnam, Medicine, Science |
| More Details: | Abstract Vaccinating young children against rotavirus (RV) is a promising preventive strategy against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE). We evaluated the relative risk reduction of RVGE induced by universal vaccination in Vietnam through dynamic model analysis. We developed an age-stratified dynamic Vaccinated-Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible model to analyze RV transmission and assess vaccine effectiveness (VE). We assumed 3 different vaccine efficacies: 55%, 70%, and 85%. For model calibration, we used a database of patients under 5 years of age admitted to Ho Chi Minh No.1 Hospital with RVGE between January 2013 and December 2018. Assuming a vaccination rate of 95%, the number of RVGE hospitalizations after 5 years from universal RV vaccination decreased from 92,502 cases to 45,626 with 85% efficacy, to 54,576 cases with 70% efficacy, and to 63,209 cases with 55% efficacy. Additionally, RVGE hospitalizations after 10 years decreased from 177,950 to 89,517 with 85% efficacy and to 121,832 cases with 55% efficacy. The relative risk reductions of RVGE after 10 years were 49.7% with 85% efficacy, 40.6% with 70% efficacy, and 31.5% with 55% efficacy. The VE was 1.10 times (95% CI, 1.01–1.22) higher in the 4-months to 1-year-old age group than in the other age groups (P = 0.038), when applying 85% efficacy with 95% coverage. In conclusion, despite its relatively lower efficacy compared to high-income countries, RV vaccination remains an effective intervention in Southwestern Vietnam. In particular, implementing universal RV vaccination with higher coverage would result in a decrease in RVGE hospitalizations among Vietnamese children under 5 years of age. |
| Document Type: | article |
| File Description: | electronic resource |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/2045-2322 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-024-54775-6 |
| Access URL: | https://doaj.org/article/ff6e1cdbb5f3474289f1c539aed3b68f |
| Accession Number: | edsdoj.ff6e1cdbb5f3474289f1c539aed3b68f |
| Database: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
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| ISSN: | 20452322 |
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| DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-024-54775-6 |
| Published in: | Scientific Reports |
| Language: | English |