Modeling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an adapted vaccine in South Africa
| Title: | Modeling the potential public health impact of different vaccination strategies with an adapted vaccine in South Africa |
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| Authors: | Nadine Al Akoury, Julia Spinardi, Hammam Haridy, Ntsiki Molefe -Osman, Noko Mphahlele, Carlos Fernando Mendoza, Jingyan Yang, Elena Aruffo, Moe H Kyaw, Ben Yarnoff |
| Source: | Expert Review of Vaccines, Vol 23, Iss 1, Pp 750-760 (2024) |
| Publisher Information: | Taylor & Francis Group, 2024. |
| Publication Year: | 2024 |
| Collection: | LCC:Internal medicine |
| Subject Terms: | Adapted vaccine, booster vaccine, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, South Africa, Internal medicine, RC31-1245 |
| More Details: | Background COVID-19 vaccines adapted to newly emerging circulating variants are necessary to better protect the population due to the evolving nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.Research Design and Methods The South African population was stratified by age and risk (defined by comorbidities such as diabetes, obesity, smoking, cancer, and asthma), and HIV status. The outcomes of different vaccination strategies based on age, risk, and HIV status were estimated using a Markov-decision tree model based on age-specific inputs derived from the literature and South African surveillance data.Results Vaccinating older adults and those with comorbidities was estimated to avert 111,179 infections 18,281 hospitalizations, and 3,868 deaths, resulting in savings of ZAR 1,260 million (USD 67 million) and ZAR 3,205 million (USD 170 million) in direct and indirect costs, respectively. Similar results were obtained when considering strategies targeting older adults and the HIV population. Expanding vaccination to 75% of the standard-risk population prevented more infections (401%), hospitalizations (167%), and deaths (67%) and increased the direct (232%) and indirect (455%) cost savings compared to the base case.Conclusions Implementing widespread vaccination strategies that utilize a vaccine adapted to the prevailing circulating variant in South Africa would result in significant public health and economic gains. |
| Document Type: | article |
| File Description: | electronic resource |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 14760584 1744-8395 1476-0584 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/1476-0584; https://doaj.org/toc/1744-8395 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/14760584.2024.2396091 |
| Access URL: | https://doaj.org/article/cab4593167144818ab25f93477320ff8 |
| Accession Number: | edsdoj.b4593167144818ab25f93477320ff8 |
| Database: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
| ISSN: | 14760584 17448395 |
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| DOI: | 10.1080/14760584.2024.2396091 |
| Published in: | Expert Review of Vaccines |
| Language: | English |