A new preprocedural predictive risk model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: The SuPER model
| Title: | A new preprocedural predictive risk model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis: The SuPER model |
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| Authors: | Mitsuru Sugimoto, Tadayuki Takagi, Tomohiro Suzuki, Hiroshi Shimizu, Goro Shibukawa, Yuki Nakajima, Yutaro Takeda, Yuki Noguchi, Reiko Kobayashi, Hidemichi Imamura, Hiroyuki Asama, Naoki Konno, Yuichi Waragai, Hidenobu Akatsuka, Rei Suzuki, Takuto Hikichi, Hiromasa Ohira |
| Source: | eLife, Vol 13 (2025) |
| Publisher Information: | eLife Sciences Publications Ltd, 2025. |
| Publication Year: | 2025 |
| Collection: | LCC:Medicine LCC:Science LCC:Biology (General) |
| Subject Terms: | ERCP, post-ERCP pancreatitis, predictive risk model, Medicine, Science, Biology (General), QH301-705.5 |
| More Details: | Background: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) is a severe and deadly adverse event following ERCP. The ideal method for predicting PEP risk before ERCP has yet to be identified. We aimed to establish a simple PEP risk score model (SuPER model: Support for PEP Reduction) that can be applied before ERCP. Methods: This multicenter study enrolled 2074 patients who underwent ERCP. Among them, 1037 patients each were randomly assigned to the development and validation cohorts. In the development cohort, the risk score model for predicting PEP was established via logistic regression analysis. In the validation cohort, the performance of the model was assessed. Results: In the development cohort, five PEP risk factors that could be identified before ERCP were extracted and assigned weights according to their respective regression coefficients: –2 points for pancreatic calcification, 1 point for female sex, and 2 points for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, a native papilla of Vater, or the pancreatic duct procedures (treated as ‘planned pancreatic duct procedures’ for calculating the score before ERCP). The PEP occurrence rate was 0% among low-risk patients (≤0 points), 5.5% among moderate-risk patients (1–3 points), and 20.2% among high-risk patients (4–7 points). In the validation cohort, the C statistic of the risk score model was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64–0.78), which was considered acceptable. The PEP risk classification (low, moderate, and high) was a significant predictive factor for PEP that was independent of intraprocedural PEP risk factors (precut sphincterotomy and inadvertent pancreatic duct cannulation) (OR 4.2, 95% CI 2.8–6.3; p |
| Document Type: | article |
| File Description: | electronic resource |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 2050-084X |
| Relation: | https://elifesciences.org/articles/101604; https://doaj.org/toc/2050-084X |
| DOI: | 10.7554/eLife.101604 |
| Access URL: | https://doaj.org/article/95948fa3636e49369e7e97e3514f76d4 |
| Accession Number: | edsdoj.95948fa3636e49369e7e97e3514f76d4 |
| Database: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
| ISSN: | 2050084X |
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| DOI: | 10.7554/eLife.101604 |
| Published in: | eLife |
| Language: | English |