Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
From a false sense of safety to resilience under uncertainty |
| Authors: |
Matti T. J. Heino, Daniele Proverbio, Kaisa Saurio, Alexander Siegenfeld, Nelli Hankonen |
| Source: |
Frontiers in Psychology, Vol 15 (2024) |
| Publisher Information: |
Frontiers Media S.A., 2024. |
| Publication Year: |
2024 |
| Collection: |
LCC:Psychology |
| Subject Terms: |
complex systems, attractor landscapes, safety, security, myth of mass panic, behavior change, Psychology, BF1-990 |
| More Details: |
Understanding and acting upon risk is notably challenging, and navigating complexity with understandings developed for stable environments may inadvertently build a false sense of safety. Neglecting the potential for non-linear change or “black swan” events – highly impactful but uncommon occurrences – may lead to naive optimisation under assumed stability, exposing systems to extreme risks. For instance, loss aversion is seen as a cognitive bias in stable environments, but it can be an evolutionarily advantageous heuristic when complete destruction is possible. This paper advocates for better accounting of non-linear change in decision-making by leveraging insights from complex systems and psychological sciences, which help to identify blindspots in conventional decision-making and to develop risk mitigation plans that are interpreted contextually. In particular, we propose a framework using attractor landscapes to visualize and interpret complex system dynamics. In this context, attractors are states toward which systems naturally evolve, while tipping points – critical thresholds between attractors – can lead to profound, unexpected changes impacting a system’s resilience and well-being. We present four generic attractor landscape types that provide a novel lens for viewing risks and opportunities, and serve as decision-making contexts. The main practical contribution is clarifying when to emphasize particular strategies – optimisation, risk mitigation, exploration, or stabilization – within this framework. Context-appropriate decision making should enhance system resilience and mitigate extreme risks. |
| Document Type: |
article |
| File Description: |
electronic resource |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
1664-1078 |
| Relation: |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1346542/full; https://doaj.org/toc/1664-1078 |
| DOI: |
10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1346542 |
| Access URL: |
https://doaj.org/article/cd7c3b060f91467e9f7512584886ea32 |
| Accession Number: |
edsdoj.7c3b060f91467e9f7512584886ea32 |
| Database: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
