Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?
| Title: | Is El Niño‐Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System? |
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| Authors: | Tobias Bayr, Joke F. Lübbecke, Stephanie Fiedler |
| Source: | Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 51, Iss 13, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
| Publisher Information: | Wiley, 2024. |
| Publication Year: | 2024 |
| Collection: | LCC:Geophysics. Cosmic physics |
| Subject Terms: | ENSO, El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, tipping element, global warming, extreme eastern Pacific El Nino events, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, QC801-809 |
| More Details: | Abstract Observed El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies between decades with high ENSO amplitude and more extreme Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events and decades with low ENSO amplitude and mainly weak El Niño events. Based on experiments with the CESM1 model, ENSO may lock‐in into an extreme EP El Niño‐dominated state in a +3.7 K warmer climate, while in a −4.0 K cooler climate ENSO may lock‐in into a weak El Niño‐dominated state. The state shift of ENSO with global warming can be explained by the location and amplitude of the strongest warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which amplifies the Bjerknes feedback and allows a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone onto the equator, a prerequisite of extreme EP El Niños. In light of these results, we discuss to what extent the state of ENSO may be a tipping element in the climate system. |
| Document Type: | article |
| File Description: | electronic resource |
| Language: | English |
| ISSN: | 1944-8007 0094-8276 |
| Relation: | https://doaj.org/toc/0094-8276; https://doaj.org/toc/1944-8007 |
| DOI: | 10.1029/2023GL107848 |
| Access URL: | https://doaj.org/article/1eb80ddeea164c32abf23d54cffb0452 |
| Accession Number: | edsdoj.1eb80ddeea164c32abf23d54cffb0452 |
| Database: | Directory of Open Access Journals |
| ISSN: | 19448007 00948276 |
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| DOI: | 10.1029/2023GL107848 |
| Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Language: | English |