| Title: |
Analysis and Prediction of Incidence and Mortality Trends of Three Enteric Infectious Diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 |
| Authors: |
LAI Fengxia, WANG Shihong, ZHAO Le, HUANG Ruixian, YANG Zihua, ZHANG Zhiyi, KONG Danli, DING Yuanlin |
| Source: |
Zhongguo quanke yixue, Vol 28, Iss 03, Pp 313-319 (2025) |
| Publisher Information: |
Chinese General Practice Publishing House Co., Ltd, 2025. |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
LCC:Medicine |
| Subject Terms: |
diarrhea, typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever, invasive non-typhoidal salmonella, incidence, mortality, trend prediction, arima model, Medicine |
| More Details: |
Background Intestinal infectious diseases are one of the common infectious diseases. Analysis and prediction of their epidemic status can provide certain reference for the prevention and treatment of intestinal infectious diseases. Objective To understand the incidence and mortality of three enteric infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict their morbidity and mortality from 2020 to 2030, so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of intestinal infectious diseases. Methods Based on the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD), the incidence and mortality data of three enteric infectious diseases, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid fever and paratyphoid fever, and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella intestinal infections in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The change rate (%) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to describe the changing trends of the above three intestinal infectious diseases. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used to predict the morbidity and mortality of the above three enteric infectious diseases in China from 2020 to 2030. Results There was no statistically significant change in the incidence of diarrheal diseases from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC=0.09, P>0.05), while the incidence of typhoid fever, paratyphoid fever and invasive non-typhoid salmonella intestinal infections showed a downward trend (EAPC were -4.0% and -0.64% respectively, P |
| Document Type: |
article |
| File Description: |
electronic resource |
| Language: |
Chinese |
| ISSN: |
1007-9572 |
| Relation: |
https://www.chinagp.net/fileup/1007-9572/PDF/20240077.pdf; https://doaj.org/toc/1007-9572 |
| DOI: |
10.12114/j.issn.1007-9572.2024.0077 |
| Access URL: |
https://doaj.org/article/174d01697eb3424e8f09444c14f00636 |
| Accession Number: |
edsdoj.174d01697eb3424e8f09444c14f00636 |
| Database: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
