Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19 |
| Authors: |
Francesco Pinotti, Paul S. Wikramaratna, Uri Obolski, Robert S. Paton, Daniel S. C. Damineli, Luiz C. J. Alcantara, Marta Giovanetti, Sunetra Gupta, José Lourenço |
| Source: |
BMC Medicine, Vol 19, Iss 1, Pp 1-12 (2021) |
| Publisher Information: |
BMC, 2021. |
| Publication Year: |
2021 |
| Collection: |
LCC:Medicine |
| Subject Terms: |
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Endemic coronaviruses, Cross-reactivity, Immunopathology, Mathematical model, Medicine |
| More Details: |
Abstract Background Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing. |
| Document Type: |
article |
| File Description: |
electronic resource |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
1741-7015 |
| Relation: |
https://doaj.org/toc/1741-7015 |
| DOI: |
10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1 |
| Access URL: |
https://doaj.org/article/1593490f9e784f98bbea2210df9df92f |
| Accession Number: |
edsdoj.1593490f9e784f98bbea2210df9df92f |
| Database: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
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