Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties |
| Authors: |
Kieran Murphy, Denisse Fierro‐Arcos, Tyler Rohr, David Green, Camilla Novaglio, Katherine Baker, Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros, Tyler D. Eddy, Cheryl S. Harrison, Simeon L. Hill, Patrick Eskuche‐Keith, Camila Cataldo‐Mendez, Colleen M. Petrik, Matthew Pinkerton, Paul Spence, Ilaria Stollberg, Roshni C. Subramaniam, Rowan Trebilco, Vivitskaia Tulloch, Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes, Sophie Bestley, Daniele Bianchi, Philip Boyd, Pearse J. Buchanan, Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz, Marta Coll, Stuart Corney, Samik Datta, Jason D. Everett, Romain Forestier, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais, Ryan Heneghan, Julia G. Mason, Olivier Maury, Clive R. McMahon, Eugene Murphy, Anthony J. Richardson, Derek P. Tittensor, Scott Spillias, Jeroen Steenbeek, Devi Veytia, Julia Blanchard |
| Source: |
Earth's Future, Vol 13, Iss 3, Pp n/a-n/a (2025) |
| Publisher Information: |
Wiley, 2025. |
| Publication Year: |
2025 |
| Collection: |
LCC:Environmental sciences
LCC:Ecology |
| Subject Terms: |
Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5 |
| More Details: |
Abstract Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region‐specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea‐ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem‐based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea‐ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems. |
| Document Type: |
article |
| File Description: |
electronic resource |
| Language: |
English |
| ISSN: |
2328-4277 |
| Relation: |
https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277 |
| DOI: |
10.1029/2024EF004849 |
| Access URL: |
https://doaj.org/article/08354512d335489d81b986ea3ae9c9c0 |
| Accession Number: |
edsdoj.08354512d335489d81b986ea3ae9c9c0 |
| Database: |
Directory of Open Access Journals |
