Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
Indicator-based assessment of extreme threats (XTs) and their impacts on the resilience of geographical areas and critical infrastructures. |
| Authors: |
Jovanović, A., Schernberg, H., Brem, S., Chakravarty, S., Jelić, M. |
| Source: |
Environment Systems & Decisions; Dec2023, Vol. 43 Issue 4, p599-624, 26p |
| Subject Terms: |
INFRASTRUCTURE (Economics), CLIMATE change |
| Geographic Terms: |
LUCERNE (Switzerland) |
| Abstract: |
The paper proposes an approach for anticipating and dealing with future extreme threats (x-threats or XTs, e.g., due to climate change) and threats challenging the resilience of the affected geographical areas and their infrastructures. The approach relies on a new composite indicator (CIRIX—Critical Infrastructure Resilience Index for X-threats) that combines indicators characterizing a particular XT and indicators characterizing the resilience of a given infrastructure to that XT. CIRIX, therefore, provides a threat- and infrastructure-specific measure of resilience for a given XT. We quantify the extremeness of XTs using a sub-hierarchy of indicators, including not only increased intensity but also increased complexity, increased impacts, and other characteristics. To illustrate the use of CIRIX for stress testing, we construct a synthetic but plausible XT scenario based on a historical event, the 2005 flooding in the Swiss city of Lucerne. We analyze it using CIRIX to investigate the resilience of the area's most critical infrastructures. The threat-and-resilience assessments were performed using the ResilienceTool. The approach allows to (a) enhance preparedness for XTs, (b) perform "what-if" analyses (e.g., by varying values of threat or resilience indicators), (c) optimize resilience-related decisions, (d) stress test the resilience of critical infrastructures, and (e) potentially use the analysis results for insurance purposes (e.g., using CIRIX for parametric insurance). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: |
Complementary Index |
