Bibliographic Details
| Title: |
The Accuracy of Prediction Markets. |
| Authors: |
WOLFRAM, THOMAS1 wolfram-thomas@usa.net |
| Source: |
Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. 2024 Q2, Issue 73, p48-53. 6p. |
| Subject Terms: |
*Prediction markets, *Ratings & rankings of public debts, *Electronic commerce, *Behavioral economics, Political forecasting, Developing countries |
| Abstract: |
Prediction markets, also known as virtual stock markets, are gaining attention for their ability to accurately predict future events. Research has shown that prediction markets are 79% more accurate than other forecasting methods. An analysis of data from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) program confirms the accuracy of prediction markets and their ability to quickly produce meaningful results. While implementing prediction markets in a corporate environment may pose challenges, their demonstrated accuracy justifies consideration by business forecasters. Surveys, on the other hand, have their own challenges and may require larger numbers of participants for reliable results. Overall, prediction markets offer a valuable tool for forecasters, particularly in corporate settings where anonymity, diversity, and independence are important. [Extracted from the article] |
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| Database: |
Business Source Complete |
