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Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance

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Title: Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
Authors: Fabrizio Nicastro, Giorgia Sironi, Elio Antonello, Andrea Bianco, Mara Biasin, John R. Brucato, Ilaria Ermolli, Giovanni Pareschi, Marta Salvati, Paolo Tozzi, Daria Trabattoni, Mario Clerici
Source: iScience, Vol 23, Iss 10, Pp 101605- (2020)
Publisher Information: Elsevier, 2020.
Publication Year: 2020
Collection: LCC:Science
Subject Terms: Infection Control in Health Technology, Solar Terrestrial Physics, Complex Systems, Science
More Details: Summary: Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences.Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
Document Type: article
File Description: electronic resource
Language: English
ISSN: 2589-0042
Relation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004220307975; https://doaj.org/toc/2589-0042
DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2020.101605
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/8a41d4f3cb9548bdbfece4794cf788ce
Accession Number: edsdoj.8a41d4f3cb9548bdbfece4794cf788ce
Database: Directory of Open Access Journals
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  Data: Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fabrizio+Nicastro%22">Fabrizio Nicastro</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Giorgia+Sironi%22">Giorgia Sironi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Elio+Antonello%22">Elio Antonello</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Andrea+Bianco%22">Andrea Bianco</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mara+Biasin%22">Mara Biasin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22John+R%2E+Brucato%22">John R. Brucato</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ilaria+Ermolli%22">Ilaria Ermolli</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Giovanni+Pareschi%22">Giovanni Pareschi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Marta+Salvati%22">Marta Salvati</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Paolo+Tozzi%22">Paolo Tozzi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Daria+Trabattoni%22">Daria Trabattoni</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mario+Clerici%22">Mario Clerici</searchLink>
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  Data: iScience, Vol 23, Iss 10, Pp 101605- (2020)
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  Data: Summary: Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences.Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.
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