Academic Journal
View in EDS
Linked Full Text

Mental health impacts of COVID-19: A retrospective analysis of dynamic modelling projections for Australia

Bibliographic Details
Title: Mental health impacts of COVID-19: A retrospective analysis of dynamic modelling projections for Australia
Authors: Adam Skinner, Jo-An Occhipinti, Yun Ju Christine Song, Ian B. Hickie
Source: Heliyon, Vol 10, Iss 7, Pp e28250- (2024)
Publisher Information: Elsevier, 2024.
Publication Year: 2024
Collection: LCC:Science (General)
LCC:Social sciences (General)
Subject Terms: Pandemic, Psychological distress, Social disconnection, Suicide, System dynamics, Unemployment, Science (General), Q1-390, Social sciences (General), H1-99
More Details: Background: In early 2020, we developed a dynamic model to support policy responses aimed at mitigating the adverse mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. As the pandemic has progressed, it has become clear that our initial model forecasts overestimated the impacts of infection control measures (lockdowns, physical distancing, etc.) on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentation rates. Methods: Potential explanations for the divergence of our model predictions from observed outcomes were assessed by comparing simulation results for a set of progressively more refined models with data on the prevalence of moderate to very high psychological distress and numbers of suicides, intentional self-harm hospitalisations, and mental health-related ED presentations published after our modelling was released in July 2020. Results: Allowing per capita rates of spontaneous recovery and intentional self-harm to differ between people experiencing moderate to very high psychological distress prior to the pandemic and those developing comparable levels of psychological distress only as a consequence of infection control measures substantially improves the fit of our model to empirical estimates of the prevalence of psychological distress and leads to significantly lower predicted effects of COVID-19 on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related ED presentation rates. Conclusion: Accommodating the influence of prior mental health on the psychological effects of population-wide social and economic disruption is likely to be critical for accurately forecasting the mental health impacts of future public health crises as they inevitably arise.
Document Type: article
File Description: electronic resource
Language: English
ISSN: 2405-8440
Relation: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024042816; https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8440
DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28250
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27
Accession Number: edsdoj.5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27
Database: Directory of Open Access Journals
FullText Links:
  – Type: other
    Url: https://resolver.ebsco.com:443/public/rma-ftfapi/ejs/direct?AccessToken=49DEA4DDDA9A5577FE53&Show=Object
Text:
  Availability: 0
CustomLinks:
  – Url: https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28250?
    Name: ScienceDirect (all content)-s8985755
    Category: fullText
    Text: View record from ScienceDirect
    MouseOverText: View record from ScienceDirect
  – Url: https://resolver.ebsco.com/c/xy5jbn/result?sid=EBSCO:edsdoj&genre=article&issn=24058440&ISBN=&volume=10&issue=7&date=20240401&spage=&pages=&title=Heliyon&atitle=Mental%20health%20impacts%20of%20COVID-19%3A%20A%20retrospective%20analysis%20of%20dynamic%20modelling%20projections%20for%20Australia&aulast=Adam%20Skinner&id=DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28250
    Name: Full Text Finder (for New FTF UI) (s8985755)
    Category: fullText
    Text: Find It @ SCU Libraries
    MouseOverText: Find It @ SCU Libraries
  – Url: https://doaj.org/article/5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27
    Name: EDS - DOAJ (s8985755)
    Category: fullText
    Text: View record from DOAJ
    MouseOverText: View record from DOAJ
Header DbId: edsdoj
DbLabel: Directory of Open Access Journals
An: edsdoj.5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27
RelevancyScore: 995
AccessLevel: 3
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 995.417175292969
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Mental health impacts of COVID-19: A retrospective analysis of dynamic modelling projections for Australia
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Adam+Skinner%22">Adam Skinner</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jo-An+Occhipinti%22">Jo-An Occhipinti</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yun+Ju+Christine+Song%22">Yun Ju Christine Song</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ian+B%2E+Hickie%22">Ian B. Hickie</searchLink>
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: Heliyon, Vol 10, Iss 7, Pp e28250- (2024)
– Name: Publisher
  Label: Publisher Information
  Group: PubInfo
  Data: Elsevier, 2024.
– Name: DatePubCY
  Label: Publication Year
  Group: Date
  Data: 2024
– Name: Subset
  Label: Collection
  Group: HoldingsInfo
  Data: LCC:Science (General)<br />LCC:Social sciences (General)
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pandemic%22">Pandemic</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Psychological+distress%22">Psychological distress</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Social+disconnection%22">Social disconnection</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Suicide%22">Suicide</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22System+dynamics%22">System dynamics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Unemployment%22">Unemployment</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Science+%28General%29%22">Science (General)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Q1-390%22">Q1-390</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Social+sciences+%28General%29%22">Social sciences (General)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22H1-99%22">H1-99</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Description
  Group: Ab
  Data: Background: In early 2020, we developed a dynamic model to support policy responses aimed at mitigating the adverse mental health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. As the pandemic has progressed, it has become clear that our initial model forecasts overestimated the impacts of infection control measures (lockdowns, physical distancing, etc.) on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentation rates. Methods: Potential explanations for the divergence of our model predictions from observed outcomes were assessed by comparing simulation results for a set of progressively more refined models with data on the prevalence of moderate to very high psychological distress and numbers of suicides, intentional self-harm hospitalisations, and mental health-related ED presentations published after our modelling was released in July 2020. Results: Allowing per capita rates of spontaneous recovery and intentional self-harm to differ between people experiencing moderate to very high psychological distress prior to the pandemic and those developing comparable levels of psychological distress only as a consequence of infection control measures substantially improves the fit of our model to empirical estimates of the prevalence of psychological distress and leads to significantly lower predicted effects of COVID-19 on suicide, intentional self-harm hospitalisation, and mental health-related ED presentation rates. Conclusion: Accommodating the influence of prior mental health on the psychological effects of population-wide social and economic disruption is likely to be critical for accurately forecasting the mental health impacts of future public health crises as they inevitably arise.
– Name: TypeDocument
  Label: Document Type
  Group: TypDoc
  Data: article
– Name: Format
  Label: File Description
  Group: SrcInfo
  Data: electronic resource
– Name: Language
  Label: Language
  Group: Lang
  Data: English
– Name: ISSN
  Label: ISSN
  Group: ISSN
  Data: 2405-8440
– Name: NoteTitleSource
  Label: Relation
  Group: SrcInfo
  Data: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024042816; https://doaj.org/toc/2405-8440
– Name: DOI
  Label: DOI
  Group: ID
  Data: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28250
– Name: URL
  Label: Access URL
  Group: URL
  Data: <link linkTarget="URL" linkTerm="https://doaj.org/article/5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27" linkWindow="_blank">https://doaj.org/article/5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27</link>
– Name: AN
  Label: Accession Number
  Group: ID
  Data: edsdoj.5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27
PLink https://login.libproxy.scu.edu/login?url=https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&scope=site&db=edsdoj&AN=edsdoj.5f7f13efe9444b248a87e75483694b27
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28250
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Pandemic
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Psychological distress
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Social disconnection
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Suicide
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: System dynamics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Unemployment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Science (General)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Q1-390
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Social sciences (General)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: H1-99
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Mental health impacts of COVID-19: A retrospective analysis of dynamic modelling projections for Australia
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Adam Skinner
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Jo-An Occhipinti
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Yun Ju Christine Song
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Ian B. Hickie
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 01
              M: 04
              Type: published
              Y: 2024
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 24058440
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 10
            – Type: issue
              Value: 7
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Heliyon
              Type: main
ResultId 1