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Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change

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Title: Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change
Authors: Alke Voskamp, Stuart H. M. Butchart, David J. Baker, Chad B. Wilsey, Stephen G. Willis
Source: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Vol 9 (2021)
Publisher Information: Frontiers Media S.A., 2021.
Publication Year: 2021
Collection: LCC:Evolution
LCC:Ecology
Subject Terms: species distribution models, important bird and biodiversity areas, species turnover, ecological forecasting, IUCN red list, threatened species, Evolution, QH359-425, Ecology, QH540-549.5
More Details: Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.
Document Type: article
File Description: electronic resource
Language: English
ISSN: 2296-701X
Relation: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.625432/full; https://doaj.org/toc/2296-701X
DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.625432
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/a5232c1dca2447289e3b308848f7541b
Accession Number: edsdoj.5232c1dca2447289e3b308848f7541b
Database: Directory of Open Access Journals
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  Data: Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change
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  Data: Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.
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      – Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: species distribution models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: important bird and biodiversity areas
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      – SubjectFull: species turnover
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      – TitleFull: Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change
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