Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk

Bibliographic Details
Title: Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk
Authors: Jana Sillmann, Theodore G. Shepherd, Bart van den Hurk, Wilco Hazeleger, Olivia Martius, Julia Slingo, Jakob Zscheischler
Source: Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
Publisher Information: Wiley, 2021.
Publication Year: 2021
Collection: LCC:Environmental sciences
LCC:Ecology
Subject Terms: climate change, decision‐making, high‐impact events, low likelihood, risk, storylines, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5
More Details: Abstract The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
Document Type: article
File Description: electronic resource
Language: English
ISSN: 2328-4277
Relation: https://doaj.org/toc/2328-4277
DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001783
Access URL: https://doaj.org/article/1d0b743c741d460eb32d71a69d248b1b
Accession Number: edsdoj.1d0b743c741d460eb32d71a69d248b1b
Database: Directory of Open Access Journals
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  Data: Earth's Future, Vol 9, Iss 2, Pp n/a-n/a (2021)
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  Data: Wiley, 2021.
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  Data: LCC:Environmental sciences<br />LCC:Ecology
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  Data: Abstract The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model‐based probabilistic climate change projections. Event‐based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress‐testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event‐based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
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        Value: 10.1029/2020EF001783
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: decision‐making
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: high‐impact events
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: low likelihood
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: risk
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: storylines
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      – SubjectFull: Environmental sciences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: GE1-350
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ecology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: QH540-549.5
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Event‐Based Storylines to Address Climate Risk
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            NameFull: Jana Sillmann
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            NameFull: Jakob Zscheischler
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