A roadmap to fair and trustworthy prediction model validation in healthcare

Bibliographic Details
Title: A roadmap to fair and trustworthy prediction model validation in healthcare
Authors: Ning, Yilin, Volovici, Victor, Ong, Marcus Eng Hock, Goldstein, Benjamin Alan, Liu, Nan
Publication Year: 2023
Collection: Computer Science
Subject Terms: Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Computers and Society
More Details: A prediction model is most useful if it generalizes beyond the development data with external validations, but to what extent should it generalize remains unclear. In practice, prediction models are externally validated using data from very different settings, including populations from other health systems or countries, with predictably poor results. This may not be a fair reflection of the performance of the model which was designed for a specific target population or setting, and may be stretching the expected model generalizability. To address this, we suggest to externally validate a model using new data from the target population to ensure clear implications of validation performance on model reliability, whereas model generalizability to broader settings should be carefully investigated during model development instead of explored post-hoc. Based on this perspective, we propose a roadmap that facilitates the development and application of reliable, fair, and trustworthy artificial intelligence prediction models.
Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures
Document Type: Working Paper
Access URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2304.03779
Accession Number: edsarx.2304.03779
Database: arXiv
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  Data: A roadmap to fair and trustworthy prediction model validation in healthcare
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ning%2C+Yilin%22">Ning, Yilin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Volovici%2C+Victor%22">Volovici, Victor</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ong%2C+Marcus+Eng+Hock%22">Ong, Marcus Eng Hock</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Goldstein%2C+Benjamin+Alan%22">Goldstein, Benjamin Alan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Liu%2C+Nan%22">Liu, Nan</searchLink>
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  Data: A prediction model is most useful if it generalizes beyond the development data with external validations, but to what extent should it generalize remains unclear. In practice, prediction models are externally validated using data from very different settings, including populations from other health systems or countries, with predictably poor results. This may not be a fair reflection of the performance of the model which was designed for a specific target population or setting, and may be stretching the expected model generalizability. To address this, we suggest to externally validate a model using new data from the target population to ensure clear implications of validation performance on model reliability, whereas model generalizability to broader settings should be carefully investigated during model development instead of explored post-hoc. Based on this perspective, we propose a roadmap that facilitates the development and application of reliable, fair, and trustworthy artificial intelligence prediction models.<br />Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures
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      – SubjectFull: Computer Science - Machine Learning
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence
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      – SubjectFull: Computer Science - Computers and Society
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      – TitleFull: A roadmap to fair and trustworthy prediction model validation in healthcare
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            NameFull: Ning, Yilin
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            NameFull: Volovici, Victor
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            NameFull: Ong, Marcus Eng Hock
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            NameFull: Goldstein, Benjamin Alan
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            NameFull: Liu, Nan
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          Dates:
            – D: 07
              M: 04
              Type: published
              Y: 2023
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