Comparison of time-to-event machine learning models in predicting biliary complication and mortality rate in liver transplant patients.

Bibliographic Details
Title: Comparison of time-to-event machine learning models in predicting biliary complication and mortality rate in liver transplant patients.
Authors: Andishgar, Aref, Bazmi, Sina, Lankarani, Kamran B., Taghavi, Seyed Alireza, Imanieh, Mohammad Hadi, Sivandzadeh, Gholamreza, Saeian, Samira, Dadashpour, Nazanin, Shamsaeefar, Alireza, Ravankhah, Mahdi, Deylami, Hamed Nikoupour, Tabrizi, Reza, Imanieh, Mohammad Hossein
Source: Scientific Reports; 2/8/2025, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p1-14, 14p
Subject Terms: MACHINE learning, FEATURE selection, MORTALITY risk factors, SURVIVAL rate, SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry)
Abstract: Post-Liver transplantation (LT) survival rates stagnate, with biliary complications (BC) as a major cause of death. We analyzed longitudinal data with a median 19-month follow-up. BC was diagnosed with ultrasounds and MRCP. Missing data was imputed using mean and median. Data preprocessing involved feature scaling and one-hot encoding. Survival analysis used filter (Cox-P, Cox-c) and embedded (RSF, LASSO) feature selection methods. Seven survival machine learning algorithms were used: LASSO, Ridge, RSF, E-NET, GBS, C-GBS, and FS-SVM. Model development employed 5-fold cross-validation, random oversampling, and hyperparameter tuning. Random oversampling addressed data imbalance. Optimal hyperparameters were determined based on average C-index. Features importance was assessed using standardized regression coefficients and permutation importance for top models. Stability was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation standard deviation. Finally, 1799 observations with 40 outcome predictors were included. RSF with Ridge achieved the highest performance (C-index: 0.699) for BC prediction, while RSF with RSF had the highest performance (C-index: 0.784) for mortality prediction. Top BC predictors were LT graft types, IBD in recipients, recipient's BMI, recipient's history of PVT, and previous LT history. For mortality, they were post-transplant AST, creatinine, recipient's age, post-transplant ALT, and tacrolimus consumption. We identified BC and mortality risk factors, improving decision-making and outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database: Complementary Index
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  Data: Comparison of time-to-event machine learning models in predicting biliary complication and mortality rate in liver transplant patients.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Andishgar%2C+Aref%22">Andishgar, Aref</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bazmi%2C+Sina%22">Bazmi, Sina</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lankarani%2C+Kamran+B%2E%22">Lankarani, Kamran B.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Taghavi%2C+Seyed+Alireza%22">Taghavi, Seyed Alireza</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Imanieh%2C+Mohammad+Hadi%22">Imanieh, Mohammad Hadi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sivandzadeh%2C+Gholamreza%22">Sivandzadeh, Gholamreza</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Saeian%2C+Samira%22">Saeian, Samira</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dadashpour%2C+Nazanin%22">Dadashpour, Nazanin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shamsaeefar%2C+Alireza%22">Shamsaeefar, Alireza</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ravankhah%2C+Mahdi%22">Ravankhah, Mahdi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Deylami%2C+Hamed+Nikoupour%22">Deylami, Hamed Nikoupour</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tabrizi%2C+Reza%22">Tabrizi, Reza</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Imanieh%2C+Mohammad+Hossein%22">Imanieh, Mohammad Hossein</searchLink>
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  Data: Scientific Reports; 2/8/2025, Vol. 15 Issue 1, p1-14, 14p
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22MACHINE+learning%22">MACHINE learning</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22FEATURE+selection%22">FEATURE selection</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22MORTALITY+risk+factors%22">MORTALITY risk factors</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22SURVIVAL+rate%22">SURVIVAL rate</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22SURVIVAL+analysis+%28Biometry%29%22">SURVIVAL analysis (Biometry)</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Post-Liver transplantation (LT) survival rates stagnate, with biliary complications (BC) as a major cause of death. We analyzed longitudinal data with a median 19-month follow-up. BC was diagnosed with ultrasounds and MRCP. Missing data was imputed using mean and median. Data preprocessing involved feature scaling and one-hot encoding. Survival analysis used filter (Cox-P, Cox-c) and embedded (RSF, LASSO) feature selection methods. Seven survival machine learning algorithms were used: LASSO, Ridge, RSF, E-NET, GBS, C-GBS, and FS-SVM. Model development employed 5-fold cross-validation, random oversampling, and hyperparameter tuning. Random oversampling addressed data imbalance. Optimal hyperparameters were determined based on average C-index. Features importance was assessed using standardized regression coefficients and permutation importance for top models. Stability was evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation standard deviation. Finally, 1799 observations with 40 outcome predictors were included. RSF with Ridge achieved the highest performance (C-index: 0.699) for BC prediction, while RSF with RSF had the highest performance (C-index: 0.784) for mortality prediction. Top BC predictors were LT graft types, IBD in recipients, recipient's BMI, recipient's history of PVT, and previous LT history. For mortality, they were post-transplant AST, creatinine, recipient's age, post-transplant ALT, and tacrolimus consumption. We identified BC and mortality risk factors, improving decision-making and outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: Abstract
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Scientific Reports is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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