Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic.
| Title: | Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Bock, Lisa, Burkhardt, Ulrike |
| Source: | Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics; 2019, Vol. 19 Issue 12, p8163-8174, 12p, 3 Illustrations, 1 Chart, 3 Graphs |
| Subject Terms: | RADIATIVE forcing, AIR traffic, CONDENSATION trails, EFFECT of human beings on climate change, AIR forces, SOOT |
| Geographic Terms: | ASIA |
| Abstract: | The climate impact of air traffic is to a large degree caused by changes in cirrus cloudiness resulting from the formation of contrails. Contrail cirrus radiative forcing is expected to increase significantly over time due to the large projected increases in air traffic. We use ECHAM5-CCMod, an atmospheric climate model with an online contrail cirrus parameterization including a microphysical two-moment scheme, to investigate the climate impact of contrail cirrus for the year 2050. We take into account the predicted increase in air traffic volume, changes in propulsion efficiency and emissions, in particular soot emissions, and the modification of the contrail cirrus climate impact due to anthropogenic climate change. Global contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases by a factor of 3 from 2006 to 2050, reaching 160 or even 180 mW m -2 , which is the result of the increase in air traffic volume and a slight shift in air traffic towards higher altitudes. Large increases in contrail cirrus radiative forcing are expected over all of the main air traffic areas, but relative increases are largest over main air traffic areas over eastern Asia. The projected upward shift in air traffic attenuates contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases in the midlatitudes but reinforces it in the tropical areas. Climate change has an insignificant impact on global contrail cirrus radiative forcing, while regional changes are significant. Of the emission reductions it is the soot number emission reductions by 50 % that lead to a significant decrease in contrail cirrus optical depth and coverage, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing by approximately 15 %. The strong increase in contrail cirrus radiative forcing due to the projected increase in air traffic volume cannot be compensated for by the decrease in initial ice crystal numbers due to reduced soot emissions and improvements in propulsion efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bock%2C+Lisa%22">Bock, Lisa</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Burkhardt%2C+Ulrike%22">Burkhardt, Ulrike</searchLink> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics; 2019, Vol. 19 Issue 12, p8163-8174, 12p, 3 Illustrations, 1 Chart, 3 Graphs – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22RADIATIVE+forcing%22">RADIATIVE forcing</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22AIR+traffic%22">AIR traffic</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22CONDENSATION+trails%22">CONDENSATION trails</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22EFFECT+of+human+beings+on+climate+change%22">EFFECT of human beings on climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22AIR+forces%22">AIR forces</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22SOOT%22">SOOT</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22ASIA%22">ASIA</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: The climate impact of air traffic is to a large degree caused by changes in cirrus cloudiness resulting from the formation of contrails. Contrail cirrus radiative forcing is expected to increase significantly over time due to the large projected increases in air traffic. We use ECHAM5-CCMod, an atmospheric climate model with an online contrail cirrus parameterization including a microphysical two-moment scheme, to investigate the climate impact of contrail cirrus for the year 2050. We take into account the predicted increase in air traffic volume, changes in propulsion efficiency and emissions, in particular soot emissions, and the modification of the contrail cirrus climate impact due to anthropogenic climate change. Global contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases by a factor of 3 from 2006 to 2050, reaching 160 or even 180 mW m -2 , which is the result of the increase in air traffic volume and a slight shift in air traffic towards higher altitudes. Large increases in contrail cirrus radiative forcing are expected over all of the main air traffic areas, but relative increases are largest over main air traffic areas over eastern Asia. The projected upward shift in air traffic attenuates contrail cirrus radiative forcing increases in the midlatitudes but reinforces it in the tropical areas. Climate change has an insignificant impact on global contrail cirrus radiative forcing, while regional changes are significant. Of the emission reductions it is the soot number emission reductions by 50 % that lead to a significant decrease in contrail cirrus optical depth and coverage, leading to a decrease in radiative forcing by approximately 15 %. The strong increase in contrail cirrus radiative forcing due to the projected increase in air traffic volume cannot be compensated for by the decrease in initial ice crystal numbers due to reduced soot emissions and improvements in propulsion efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: Abstract Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics is the property of Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.5194/acp-19-8163-2019 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 12 StartPage: 8163 Subjects: – SubjectFull: ASIA Type: general – SubjectFull: RADIATIVE forcing Type: general – SubjectFull: AIR traffic Type: general – SubjectFull: CONDENSATION trails Type: general – SubjectFull: EFFECT of human beings on climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: AIR forces Type: general – SubjectFull: SOOT Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Contrail cirrus radiative forcing for future air traffic. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Bock, Lisa – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Burkhardt, Ulrike IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 06 Text: 2019 Type: published Y: 2019 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 16807316 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 19 – Type: issue Value: 12 Titles: – TitleFull: Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics Type: main |
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