Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia.
| Title: | Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Gómez-Díaz, Jorge Antonio1,2 (AUTHOR), Carvajal-Hernández, César Isidro2 (AUTHOR) ccarvajal@uv.mx, Dáttilo, Wesley3 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | PLoS ONE. 2/8/2024, Vol. 19 Issue 2, p1-15. 15p. |
| Subject Terms: | *CYCADS, *MOUNTAIN forests, *SPECIES distribution, TROPICAL climate |
| Geographic Terms: | VERACRUZ (Veracruz-Llave, Mexico) |
| Abstract: | Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gómez-Díaz%2C+Jorge+Antonio%22">Gómez-Díaz, Jorge Antonio</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Carvajal-Hernández%2C+César+Isidro%22">Carvajal-Hernández, César Isidro</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> ccarvajal@uv.mx</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dáttilo%2C+Wesley%22">Dáttilo, Wesley</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22PLoS+ONE%22">PLoS ONE</searchLink>. 2/8/2024, Vol. 19 Issue 2, p1-15. 15p. – Name: Subject Label: Subject Terms Group: Su Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22CYCADS%22">CYCADS</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22MOUNTAIN+forests%22">MOUNTAIN forests</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22SPECIES+distribution%22">SPECIES distribution</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22TROPICAL+climate%22">TROPICAL climate</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22VERACRUZ+%28Veracruz-Llave%2C+Mexico%29%22">VERACRUZ (Veracruz-Llave, Mexico)</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of PLoS ONE is the property of Public Library of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284007 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 15 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: VERACRUZ (Veracruz-Llave, Mexico) Type: general – SubjectFull: CYCADS Type: general – SubjectFull: MOUNTAIN forests Type: general – SubjectFull: SPECIES distribution Type: general – SubjectFull: TROPICAL climate Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Gómez-Díaz, Jorge Antonio – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Carvajal-Hernández, César Isidro – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dáttilo, Wesley IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 08 M: 02 Text: 2/8/2024 Type: published Y: 2024 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 19326203 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 19 – Type: issue Value: 2 Titles: – TitleFull: PLoS ONE Type: main |
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