Enhancing Near Real Time AI-NWP Hurricane Forecasts: Improving Explainability and Performance Through Physics-Based Models and Land Surface Feedback

Authors: Sudharsan, Naveen, Singh, Manmeet, Talukdar, Sasanka, Mohanty, Shyama, Kamath, Harsh, Osuri, Krishna K., Dashtian, Hassan, Young, Michael, Yang, Zong-Liang, Dawson, Clint, Leung, L. Ruby, Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman, Mehra, Avichal, Tallapragada, Vijay, Niyogi, Dev

Subject Terms: Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics - Geophysics

Access URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2502.01797

Validation of the HWRF-POM and HWRF-HYCOM hurricane forecasting systems during Hurricane Dorian using glider observations

Authors: Aristizabal-Vargas, Maria F., Miles, Travis, Glenn, Scott, Kim, Hyun-Sook, Mehra, Avichal

Source: Global Oceans 2020: Singapore – U.S. Gulf Coast. :1-5 Oct, 2020

Relation: Global Oceans 2020: Singapore - U.S. Gulf Coast

Impact of Assimilating Satellite and Glider Observations on Hurricane Isaias (2020) Forecast Using Marine JEDI

Authors: Liu, Ling, Mehra, Avichal, Kleist, Daryl, Vernieres, Guillaume, Sluka, Travis, Bhargava, Kriti, Stegmann, Patrick, Kim, Hyun-Sook, Paturi, Shastri, Xu, Jiangtao

Source: WEATHER AND FORECASTING. 38(9):1807-1826

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN632592591&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN632592591

The Impact of Tropical SST Biases on the S2S Precipitation Forecast Skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS Global Coupled Model

Authors: Bai, Hedanqiu, Li, Bin, Mehra, Avichal, Meixner, Jessica, Moorthi, Shrinivas, Ray, Sulagna, Stefanova, Lydia, Wang, Jiande, Wang, Jun, Worthen, Denise

Source: Weather and forecasting. 38(6):937-952

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN632824900&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN632824900

A Forecast Cycle—Based Evaluation for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts by the Operational HWRF Model

Authors: Wang, Weiguo, Zhu, Lin, Liu, Bin, Zhang, Zhan, Mehra, Avichal, Tallapragada, Vijay

Source: Weather and forecasting. 38(1):125-138

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN631299592&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN631299592

Development of a Flexible Coupling Framework for Coastal Inundation Studies

Authors: Moghimi, Saeed, van der Westhuysen, Andre, Abdolali, Ali, Myers, Edward, Vinogradov, Sergey, Ma, Zaizhong, Liu, Fei, Mehra, Avichal, Kurkowski, Nicole

Subject Terms: Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Access URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.12652

Lifetime Performance of the Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) for North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.

Authors: Alaka Jr., Ghassan J.¹, ghassan.alaka@noaa.gov, Sippel, Jason A.¹, Zhang, Zhan², Kim, Hyun-Sook³, Marks, Frank D.¹, Tallapragada, Vijay², Mehra, Avichal², Zhang, Xuejin¹, Poyer, Aaron⁴, Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman G.¹

Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; Jun2024, Vol. 105 Issue 6, pE932-E961, 30p

Roles of TAO/TRITON and Argo in Tropical Pacific Observing Systems : An OSSE Study for Multiple Time Scale Variability

Authors: Zhu, Jieshun, Vernieres, Guillaume, Sluka, Travis, Flampouris, Stylianos, Kumar, Arun, Mehra, Avichal, Cronin, Meghan F., Zhang, Dongxiao, Wills, Samantha, Wang, Jiande, Wang, Wanqiu

Source: Journal of Climate, 2021 Aug . 34(16), 6797-6817.

Access URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/27076977

Skill Assessment of NCEP Three-Way Coupled HWRF—HYCOM—WW3 Modeling System: Hurricane Laura Case Study

Authors: Kim, Hyun-Sook, Meixner, Jessica, Thomas, Biju, Reichl, Brandon G., Liu, Bin, Mehra, Avichal, Wallcraft, Alan

Source: Weather and forecasting. 37(8):1309-1331

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN630141148&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN630141148

A Statistical Analysis of High-Frequency Track and Intensity Forecasts from NOAA's Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Modeling System

Authors: Zhang, Zhan, Zhang, Jun A., Alaka, Ghassan J., Wu, Keqin, Mehra, Avichal, Tallapragada, Vijay

Source: Monthly weather review. 149(10):3325-3339

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN627905292&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN627905292

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Composite Statistics and Key Events

Authors: Hazelton, Andrew, Zhang, Zhan, Liu, Bin, Dong, Jili, Alaka, Ghassan, Wang, Weiguo, Marchok, Tim, Mehra, Avichal, Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman, Zhang, Xuejin

Source: Weather and forecasting. 36(2):519-538

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN626432407&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN626432407

A New Horizontal Mixing-Length Formulation for Numerical Simulations of Tropical Cyclones

Authors: Wang, Weiguo, Liu, Bin, Zhu, Lin, Zhang, Zhan, Mehra, Avichal, Tallapragada, Vijay

Source: Weather and forecasting. 36(2):679-695

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN626432497&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN626432497

Evaluating the accuracy and uncertainty of atmospheric and wave model hindcasts during severe events using model ensembles

Authors: Abdolali, Ali, van der Westhuysen, Andre, Ma, Zaizhong, Mehra, Avichal, Roland, Aron, Moghimi, Saeed

Source: Ocean dynamics. 71(2):217-235

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCvdc_100193095750.0x000001&indx=1&recIds=ETOCvdc_100193095750.0x000001

Development and Validation of NOAA's 20-Year Global Wave Ensemble Reforecast.

Authors: Campos, Ricardo M., Abdolali, Ali, Alves, Jose-Henrique, Masarik, Matthew, Meixner, Jessica, Mehra, Avichal, Figurskey, Darin, Banihashemi, Saeideh, Sienkiewicz, Joseph, Lumpkin, Rick

Source: Weather & Forecasting; Nov2024, Vol. 39 Issue 11, p1651-1672, 22p

Subject Terms: WIND waves, NUMERICAL weather forecasting, LEAD time (Supply chain management), SPATIAL resolution, STATISTICS

The Impact of Tropical Pacific SST Biases on the S2S Forecast Skill over North America in the UFS Global Coupled Model.

Authors: Stan, Cristiana¹, cstan@gmu.edu, Krishnamurthy, V.¹, Bai, Hedanqiu¹, Li, Bin², Mehra, Avichal³, Meixner, Jessica³, Moorthi, Shrinivas³, Stefanova, Lydia², Wang, Jiande², Wang, Jun³, Worthen, Denise², Yang, Fanglin³

Source: Journal of Climate; Apr2023, Vol. 36 Issue 8, p2439-2456, 18p

Ocean component of the first operational version of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Evaluation of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and hurricane feedback forecasts.

Authors: Kim, Hyun-Sook, Liu, Bin, Thomas, Biju, Rosen, Daniel, Wang, Weiguo, Hazelton, Andrew, Zhang, Zhan, Zhang, Xueijin, Mehra, Avichal, He, Hailun, Xu, Hang, Wu, Lifeng

Source: Frontiers in Earth Science; 2024, p1-18, 18p

Subject Terms: HURRICANE forecasting, HEAT budget (Geophysics), ATMOSPHERIC models, TROPICAL cyclones, OCEANIC mixing

The Implementation of Cloud and Vertical Velocity Relocation/Cycling System in the Vortex Initialization of the HAFS.

Authors: Shin, JungHoon, Zhang, Zhan, Liu, Bin, Weng, Yonghui, Liu, Qingfu, Mehra, Avichal, Tallapragada, Vijay

Source: Atmosphere; Aug2024, Vol. 15 Issue 8, p1006, 26p

Subject Terms: HURRICANE forecasting, TROPICAL storms, METEOROLOGICAL research, WEATHER forecasting, HURRICANES, TROPICAL cyclones

Advancing the State of the Art in Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting at Ncep

Authors: Mehra, Avichal ^*, Tallapragada, Vijay, Zhang, Zhan, Liu, Bin, Zhu, Lin, Wang, Weiguo, Kim, Hyun-Sook

Source: In Tropical Cyclone Research and Review February 2018 7(1):51-56

Impacts of Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Derived from Himawari-8 on Tropical Cyclone Forecast in HWRF

Authors: Sawada, Msahiro, Ma, Zaizhong, Mehra, Avichal, Tallapragada, Vijay, Oyama, Ryo, Shimoji, Kazuki

Source: Monthly weather review. 147(10):3721-3740

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCRN621915587&indx=1&recIds=ETOCRN621915587

Implications of ocean color in the upper water thermal structure at NINO3.4 region: a sensitivity study for optical algorithms and ocean color variabilities

Authors: Kim, Hae-Cheol, Nadiga, Sudhir, Son, Seunghyun, Mehra, Avichal, Garraffo, Zulema, Bayler, Eric, Behringer, David

Source: GIScience & remote sensing. 55(4):568-582

Availability: http://explore.bl.uk/primo_library/libweb/action/display.do?tabs=detailsTab&gathStatTab=true&ct=display&fn=search&doc=ETOCvdc_100064029890.0x000001&indx=1&recIds=ETOCvdc_100064029890.0x000001